In the case of chemical pollution and biodiversity, results show that indirect effects deserve to be accounted for in life cycle analyses. However, in the case of greenhouse gases, the indirect emissions more than offset the local benefits of organic agriculture. The negative indirect effects on the environment appear limited compared to the local benefits of adopting greener forms of agriculture in the EU. The resulting land use changes are assessed, as well as the corresponding changes in greenhouse gas emissions, chemical inputs use and biodiversity. This shock affects global markets and induces production and demand displacements, unless the yield gap is reduced. We calibrate organic production technologies using micro-level data and find that using organic production techniques on 20% of the European area cultivated with maize, rapeseed, sunflower and wheat results in a large negative productivity shock. However, organic yields are on average 25% lower than those of conventional farming. Organic farming is known for its local environmental benefits, especially on water and soil quality, biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions.
A computable general equilibrium model is used to quantify the indirect global impacts of a greening of European agriculture through a large shift to organic farming. In a first part, Chapter II illustrates the possible leakage effects of environmental policies implemented unilaterally. This thesis analyses both theoretically and empirically some of the issues that emerge when applying environmental policies to the agricultural sector in a trade context. We conclude by pointing out the critical aspects that have to be refined in order to improve our understanding of the environmental implications of biofuel development. Ethanol trade liberalization benefits are ambiguous and depend highly on the parameters governing land use change, particularly in Brazil. We find that emissions released because of ethanol programs significantly worsen the total carbon balance of biofuel policies. We apply this methodology to look at the impacts of biofuel (ethanol) policies for transportation in the United States and in the European Union with and without ethanol trade liberalization. In this integrated global approach, we capture the environmental cost of different land conversions due to biofuels in the carbon budget, taking into account both direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions related to land use change.
Land use changes are represented at the level of agroecological zones in a dynamic framework using land substitution with nesting of constant elasticity of transformation functions and a land supply module that takes into account the effects of economic land expansion. We rely on the trade policy model MIRAGE and on the GTAP 7 database, both of which have been modified and improved to explicitly capture the role of different types of biofuel feedstock crops, energy demand and substitution, and carbon emissions.
In this paper, we develop a methodology for assessing the indirect land use change effects related to biofuel policies in a computable general equilibrium framework. The relocation of production could increase deforestation and bring significant new volumes of carbon into the atmosphere. Growing biofuel crops could induce diversion of other crops dedicated to food and feed needs.
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